Socio-economic performance in the first quarter of 2020 (Report No. 47/BC-TCTK dated March 27, 2020 by the General Statistics Office)
- Gross domestic product (GDP): Gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2020 is estimated to increase by 3.82% compared to the same period last year, the lowest level of the first quarter of years in the period of 2011-2020. In the overall growth of the economy, the agriculture, forestry and fishery made a rise by 0.08%, contributing 0.2% to the overall growth; the industry and construction rose by 5.15%, contributing 58.4%; the services moved up by 3.27%, contributing 41.4%.
- Agriculture, forestry and fishery: The agriculture saw a negative growth of 1.17%, only higher than the negative growth of 2.69% in the first quarter of 2016 in the period of 2011-2020, reducing 0.1 percentage point increase in total added value of the whole economy; the forestry increased by 5.03% but contributed only 0.04 percentage points because of the low proportion; the fishery rose by 2.79%, lower than 4.96% and 5.42% of the same period in 2018 and 2019, contributing 0.07 percentage points.
- Industrial production: In the first quarter of 2020, the industry reached a low growth rate of 5.28% against the same period last year as affected by Covid-19 epidemic; in which, processing and manufacturing hit the lowest growth rate in the period of 2016-2020; electricity production and distribution grew steadily; mining dropped sharply mainly due to sharp decrease in crude oil and natural gas exploitation. The added value of the whole industry in the first quarter of 2020 is estimated to increase by 5.28% over the same period last year.
- Business activities: The business sector faced more difficulties in the first quarter of 2020 due to the direct impact of the Covid-19 epidemic. In the first 3 months of 2020, there were 29.7 thousand newly registered enterprises nationwide, up 4.4% over the same period last year; 14.8 thousand enterprises went back to operation, down 1.6%; it is worth noting that the number of enterprises temporarily suspending their business for a period of time jumped up 26% to 18.6 thousand. However, the survey results on business trends in the manufacturing and processing sector showed that enterprises expected Covid-19 epidemic to end soon, so they forecasted business and production situation in the second quarter to be better than the first quarter. The average registered capital of a newly established enterprise in the first quarter of 2020 reached 11.8 billion dong, down 10.4% compared to the same period last year.
- Services: The negative effects of the Covid-19 epidemic impacted the consumer psychology leading to the restraint of shopping at public places, traveling and eating out due to fears of epidemic spreading. Therefore, total retail sales of consumer goods and services in March 2020 decreased by 0.8% compared to the same period last year. This is the first decline in the period 2016-2020. For the first quarter of 2020, total retail sales of consumer goods and services rose 4.7% to 1,246.1 trillion dong against the same period last year if excluding the price increasing factor of 1.6 % (the same period in 2019 increased by 9.3%).
- Passenger and freight transport: The complicated movements of Covid-19 epidemic directly affected transportation activities in the first quarter of 2020, of which passenger transport was greatly influenced when the number of passengers transported in March 2020 dropped by 21.4% over the same period last year, and by 6.1% in the first 3 months of 2020 due to the impact of the campaign, recommendations on disease prevention and suspension of entry visas granted to foreigners.
- Number of international visitors: Generally for the first 3 months of 2020, the number of international visitors to Vietnam fell 18.1% to nearly 3.7 million over the same period last year.
- Banking activities: The operation of the credit institution system in the first quarter of 2020 was affected by the Covid-19 epidemic. As of March 20, 2020, credit growth hit the lowest level compared to the same period of the years 2016-2020. As of March 20, 2020, the total means of payment rose by 1.55% compared to the end of 2019 (the same period in 2019 up 2.54% compared to 2018); capital mobilization of credit institutions increased by 0.51% (the same period in 2019 up 1.72% compared to 2018); credit growth of the economy moved up by 0.68% (the same period in 2019 up 1.9% compared to 2018), showing that businesses are facing many difficulties caused by the Covid-19 epidemic, leading to narrower production and business activities.
- Investment activities: Total social investment capital in the first quarter of 2020 increased by 2.2% over the same period last year, the lowest level in the period 2016-2020 due to the negative effects of the Covid-19 epidemic to all business activities. However, the capital disbursed from the State budget in the first quarter of 2020 was pretty good at 13.2% compared to the annual plan despite the State budget target was 18% higher in 2020 compared to 2019 and 16.4% higher than the same period last year. This is a positive signal reflecting the results of the Government's drastic implementation of measures to promote the disbursement of public investment. Realized FDI in 3 months was estimated at 3.9 billion USD, down 6.6% compared to the same period last year, this is the first reduction in the period of 2016-2020.
In the first 3 months of 2020, Vietnam's outward investment saw 27 projects newly granted investment certificates with a total capital of 22.9 million USD; 6 turns of project expansion with additional capital of 26.4 million USD. Generally, Vietnam's investment outflows (newly and additionally granted capital) reached US $ 49.3 million.
- State budget revenues and expenditures: The complicated Covid-19 epidemic impacted production, business and import-export activities, thereby affecting the State budget revenues in the first months of 2020. The State budget expenditures focus on meeting the needs of socio-economic development, national defense, security, healthcare, State management and payment of due debts. Total state budget revenues from the beginning of the year to March 15, 2020 were estimated at 311.3 trillion dong, equivalent to 20.6% of the yearly estimate, of which domestic revenue accounted for 20.3% or 256.8 trillion dong; revenue from crude oil was 34.5% or 12.1 trillion dong; balanced budget revenue from import and export activities was 42.4 trillion dong or 20.4%.
Total state budget expenditures from the beginning of the year to March 15, 2020 was estimated at 278.1 trillion dong, equal to 15.9% of the yearly estimate, of which regular spending was 201.2 trillion dong or 19%; expenditure for development investment was 47.7 trillion dong or 10.1%; interest payment was 28.6 trillion dong, equal to 24.2%.
- Export and import: The Covid-19 epidemic spreading rampantly in the top trading partners of Vietnam like China, Korea, Japan, EU and the US has significantly affected the export and import turnovers of many commodities. Total import and export turnovers in March 2020 were estimated to fall by 11.1% to 39 billion USD over the same period last year. For the first quarter of 2020, total import and export turnovers decreased by 0.7% to 115.34 billion USD, of which exports rose slightly by 0.5% to 59.08 billion USD; import dropped by 1.9% to 56.26 billion USD. Trade surplus in the first quarter of 2020 arrived at 2.8 billion USD.
- Consumer price index (CPI): Average CPI of the first quarter of 2020 over the same period in 2019 increased by 5.56%; CPI in March 2020 only rose by 0.34% compared to December 2019 and by 4.87% over the same period last year.
- Labor and employment: In the first quarter of 2020, the labor force age from 15 or over nationwide was estimated to plunge by 673.1 thousand people to 55.3 million over the previous quarter and by 144.2 thousand people compared to the same quarter last year as the labor market shrank in all sectors and in most provinces and centrally-run cities across the country.
Ministry of Planning and Investment