Report of Department of Agricultural Economy – Ministry of Planning and Investment in April 24th 2012.
I. Agriculture, forestry and fishery production situation
As of April 15, 2012, the country had 3078,2 thousand ha of winter-spring rice cultivated, equaling 100.1% from the same period last year, of which areas in the North finished the cultivation achieving about 1147.8 thousand ha, equaling 101.8%.
As of mid-April, provinces in the South reaped 1627.7 thousand ha of winter-spring, occupying 84% of the cultivation area, equal to 98.7% from last year’s same period, of which provinces in the Mekong River Delta reaped 1477 thousand ha of winter-spring rice, occupying 93% of the area under cultivation and equaling 101% year on year. According to preliminary assessment, the winter-spring rice yield in this region was estimated to reach 10.76 million tons, rising approximately 280 thousand tons from the same crop last year. This was mainly by increase of about 1.2 quintal/ha (+1.8%) in productivity as against the same crop of 2011. The rice productivity of this region increased mainly thanks to: (1) In 2011, the flood water level was high, the period of flood prolonged taking much alluvium, making the soil fat, (2) People cultivated rice at the same time to evade plant hopper and cultivated in the proper crop recommended by the agricultural sector, applied fertilizer under the leaf-color chart, used rice varieties with high productivity (The ratio of variety IR 50404 was still significantly cultivated because the summer-autumn and autumn-winter crops in 2011 went for a good price), kinds of certified variety, high-quality rice variety ... so many pests were restricted,, helping rice plants grow well, reduce expenses, increase profit.
Other provinces also began harvesting winter-spring rice. Owing to favourable weather conditions, so as estimated, the rice yield of provinces in South CentralCoastRegion increased as against the same period of 2011 (Quang Nam had 23.1% of area harvested, the productivity increased 5.0 quintal/ha (+8%); Binh Dinh had 44% of cultivation area harvested, the capacity raised 0.8 quintal/ha (+1,3%). Phu Yen had 50% of cultivation area harvested, the productivity increased 3.2 quintal/ha. Provinces in the Southeastern region had over 60% of cultivation area harvested, the productivity gained approximately as the same period last year because some areas which were about to be harvested were affected by Storm No.1 with rain, so the productivity reduced .
Together with this, provinces in the South also sowed seeds for 582.9 thousand ha of summer-autumn rice, capturing 86.4% from last year’s same period, of which provinces of the Mekong River Delta sowed seeds for 558 thousand of ha, equaling 86.5% as against the same period last year
Other annual plants: As of mid-April, the country had 485.8 thoudand ha of maize, equal to 96.6%; 93.2 thousand ha of sweet potato, equivalent to 99.1%; 465.3 thousand ha of vegetables and bean, equaling 104.1% year on year, 52.9 thousand ha of soybean, equivalent to 47.1%; 161.3 thousand ha of peanut, equaling 93,7% harvested. Up to now, provinces in the Southeastern and the Central Highland regions are harvesting intercrop manioc/wheat of 2011-2012 but due to the influence of Storm No.1, it was rainy while harvesting many manioc/wheat areas so the productivity decreased and was damaged (Bìinh Thuan, Gia Lai).
Buffalo and oxen husbandry: As estimated, the country’s stock of buffalos and oxen decreased 7% from the same period in 2011. The cow husbandry continued developing; the stock of cows was estimated to increase over 10% with many associated models between purchasing enterprises and raisers (Hanoi, Nghe An....)
Pig husbandry: As estimated, the country’s stock of pigs increased about 3-4% from the same period of 2011. Pig raisers were meeting difficulties because the live pig price was tending to reduce. In addition, the pork consumption was restricted because people were afraid that the pork catched lean-making stimulant, adversely affecting human health. Thus, although the Porcine Reproductive andRespiratory Syndrome didn’t spread as previous years, raisers had not been brave in investing in the rapid increase of livestock production.
Poultry husbandry: The stock of poultry was estimated to increase about 5-6% from last year’s same period. The poultry husbandry sustained significant damages because the avian influenza spreaded in many areas all over the country from the late January this year. Up to now, the avian influemza has been controlled. At present, the demand of poultry consumption in the market is considerable because people are afraid of pork so the recovery of livestock production has many advantages.
Epidemic disease situation for livestock, poultry
According to the Departmentof Animal Health, up to April 18, 2012, three provinces all over the country including Dien Bien, Yen Bai and Nam Dinh had the Porcine Reproductive andRespiratory Syndrome not over 21 days, no provinces had the avian influenza and the foot-and-mouth disease not over 21 days.
As the weather condition was warm and hot in April, some areas had rains, the drought and severe situation in the first months of the year was partly reduced. However, because the rainfall was low, the drought situation had not brought to an end affecting the production schedule, especially the afforestation work.
The results of implementing a number of main targets achieved in the month were as below: concentratedplanted forest area was estimated to reach 11.3 thousand ha, equaling 93.4% as against the same period of 2011; the number of dispersed planted trees reached 17.4 million (up 1.2%); wood production was estimated to capture 396 thousand m3 (up 9%); firewood production reached 2.74 million ste (up 2.2%).
Generally in the first four months of the year, the country’s concentrated planted forest area was estimated to reach 28 thousand ha, equaling from last year’s same period. New afforestatuion area in the period was mainly in mountainous provinces in the North and provinces in the Central North; the number of dispersed plated trees reached 79.4 million, up 2.5%; wood production reached 1431 thousand m3, up 9.2%; firewood production reached 9.9 million ste, up 2.5%.
Forest’s damage situation: Up to now, the risk of forest fire decreased as against the first months of the year, according to warnings of the Forest ProtectionDepartment, up to April 18, there’s almost no zone with the high risk of forest fire nationwide; however, due to the effect by long spells of drought weather, some areas still happened forest fire cases, according to the reports of provinces, in the period, 39 forest fire cases happened, of which burnt area was 76.5 ha (in particular Dien Bien had58.3ha burnt). The number of illegal deforestation for cultivation cases was 130, damaged area was 23.6 ha.
Generally in the first four months of the year, damaged area was 801.1 ha, rising 6.5 times from the same period of 2011, of which, burnt area was 708.5 ha (rising over 11 times), destroyed area was 92.6 ha (rising 49.6%).
Fishing production of April was estimated to reach 408.2 thousand tons, up 3.0% from last year’s same period; of which, fish production was estimated to reach 322.8 thousand tons, up 2.5%, shrimp production was 35.2 thousand tons, up 7.6 %, and other kinds of aquatic product were 50.2 thousand tons, up 3.1%.
Total fishing production in the first four months of 2012 was estimated to reach 1 540.4 thousand tons, increasing by 3.7% as against the same period a year earlier; of which, fish production was estimated to gain 1180.8 thousand tons, rising by 3.5%, shrimp production was estimated to reach 139.7 thousand tons, increasing by 6.4%, other kinds of aquatic product were estimated to reach 219.9 thousand tons, up 3.4%.
As estimated, acquaculture production in April reached 706.7 thousand tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; of which, fish production reached 538.1 thousand tons, up 3.9%, shrimp production reached 102.5 thousand tons, rising by 7.7%. The aquaculture situation in the first four months of the year was relatively favourable because the prices of key aquatic products for export such as catfish, sugpo prawn, white legshrimp,...increased.
Catfish aquaculture saw thriving signs but implied many risks: In the first three months of the year, the price of material catfish increased as against the late 2011, but up to April, catfish price continued decreasing, up to now it was VND20,000-21,000/kg, reducing by VND2,000-3,000/kg as against the early month, with this price level, pisciculturists gained no profit making the catfish production fall into difficult conditions. This was caused by the insufficient capital of enterprises, inventory commodities not yet exported. The catfish production of areas in the Mekong River Delta caught in April was estimated to reach nearly 80 thousand tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6%, making the general fish production increase slowly as against the previous months. Of which, catfish production in An Giang only reached 22 thousand tons, reducing by 29%; Vinh Long reached 4 thousand tons, decreasing 65%....
Shrimp hatching developed significantly, epidemic diseases happened but not spreaded as the same period last year, almost all areas which caught epidemic diseases were settled in a timely manner, the production caught was relative. In April: Ca Mau caught 11 thousand tons, increasing by 25% á the same period last year; Bac Lieu caught 5 thousand tons, up 14%...
The aquaculture of other kinds of aquatic product was relatively stable associated with implementing the policy on conversion and expansion of areas of aquatic product aquaculture in the orientation of combined polyculture, polyanimalS in order to raise economic efficiency and ensure the sustainable ecologicall environment ofagriculture, forestry and fisheryfields. Popularly culturing models of shrimp-fish, shrimp-crab, shrimp-rice, rice-fish combination…. Developing aquaculture by cages, rafts on the sea with species of aquatic product with high economic value such as grouper, cobia, elephant trunkclam….
Aquatic exploitation production in April was estimated to reach 833.7 thousand tons, increasing 3.1% as against the same period last year; of which sea expoitation accounted for 8 thouands, up 3.3%
The sea weather was relatively favourable, offshore fishing jobs reached relative production with seine net, sweep net, trawl net, drift net, 3 screen, light blind, spike, fishing, anchovy fishing....with main exploitation objects including tuna, anchovy, scad, bream, ribbonfish, indian mackerel, squid,cuttlefish,ovalsquid… Although the petrol and oil price increased in March, areas actively implemented Decision No.48/2010/QD-TTg on the petrol and oil support to ships with large capacity exploiting on offshore territorial waters and deployed the project on observation by satellite for boats with the capacity of 90CV and above. On the other hand, the prices of aquatic products which increased created conditions for fishermen to sponge on the sea.
4. General assessment
In the first quarter and the early second quarter of 2012, the whole industry overcame difficulties in weather,avian influenza spreaded in some areas right after Lunar New Year,the prices of some main agriculture products in the world and in the country declined and the investment capital was delivered late,…At the same time, Resolution No.01/NQ-CP dated January 03, 2012 by the Government was strictly implemented regarding solutions to the guidance, management of plans and many other measures for production and business promotion.
Generally, the first 4 months of 2012, agriculture, forestry and fishery production takes place favourably without any significant problem. The production result of the first quarter achieved relatively exceeding the proposed plan. According to the General Statistics Office, the agriculture, forestry and fishery production value of the first quarter in 2012 (at 1994 constant prices) was estimated to reach VND50,370.68 billion, up 3.68% as compared to the first quarter of 2011, of which agriculture production reached VND37,695.48 billion, increasing 3.23%; forestry production gained VND1,584 billion, up 6.14%; fishery production reached VND11,091.2 billion, up 4.9% (the first quarter of 2011, up 3.46%).
- Cultivation continued developing in key plants, in spite of the decrease in someshort-termsubsidiary crops,but its level was not significant, didn’t affect the growth rate of the industry.
- Husbandry in the first 4 months of the year still grew relatively, epidemic diseases appeared insignificantly and were controlled, they were encircled and put down opportunely in case of occurrence, so their consequences were not remarkable, the number of flocks, heads of livestock was recovered and developed.
- Aquatic production still reached considerably year on year although the catching work met many difficulties (due to petrol and oil price, weather).
- Prices of agricultural products tended to decrease in the domestic market (especially pork, rice price in the Meking River Delta..), the export prices of some commodities also reduced becaused of the impact by supply sources and the world’s demand (rubber decreased to 64% year on yearỳ, manioc reduced to 21%...)
III. Forecast for domestic, world situations next time
- As forecasted, the world economy shall grow more vigorously as against 2011; however, it is possible to exist inflation and macroeconomic instability, decline of growth impetus in some large economies (with potential control) of the world.
Political, military crisis, act of God happening in some countries brought about the instability in security, politics in the international aspect.
The more increasing tendency of trade protection is one of causes putting pressure to increase commodities prices in the world.
Forecast for farm produce markets in the world: as the demand for farm produces in the world doesn’t reduce as against the level of 2011. The food price in the context of having the increase in demand in almost all countries, while export countries tend to decrease the export quantum ans pay attention to the objective of domestic food security. Vietnam rice has the competitive advatage by price. As forcecasted, the situation of farm produce price in the international market in 2012 shall have no many changes, tending to create new price plans due to increased input costs.
- New policies for assisting the agriculture sector, rural areas to gradually come to life are an important premise in the industry development in coming years.
- Our committments on WTO integration insignificantly affect export as well as domestic production. The State’s supports are mainly indirect ones (green box, blue box), direct supports such as export support, production support (amber box) are low. The implementation of WTO committments has finished the preparation and deployment processes, implemented from bilateral committments with other countries which previously have implemented, the effect of these committments is not considerable on domestic and export agricultural products production .
- Act of God, epidemic diseases on livestock and pestilent insects are always implicit; the prices of materials, input materials for production (petrol and oil, fertilizer..) which has increased over the past time may result in the risk of increase again of price index, remarkably affect the situation of agriculture, forestry and fishery production.
- The awareness of people, sectors, echelons disregards clean production, lacks measures for effective management, lacks investment support to structure conversion, concentrated production under the farm, industrial scale. Policies on socializing the agricultural field, attracting enterprises and other economic sectors to invest in agricultural field and rural areas take place slowly.
IV. Some recommendations
1. Adjustment of investment structure by sector
-Agriculture: Priority is given to investing in programs, projects on choosing, creating, propagating crop plants,domestic animals for the conversion of production structure and commodity export;projects on pest and disease prevention,food hygiene safety,support to farmers’ production as the standard(VietGAP, Global GAP)according to policies which have been promulgated.
-Fishery: Strongly increasing the investment in infrastructure of concentrated aquaculture areas (including irrigational works for aquaculture),the investment in developing the aquatic variety system;contructing thesurveying, environmental warning and epidemic disease supervisionsystemfor aquaculture;continuing toinvest in projects on fishing ports,anchoragezone for ships.
-Forestry:Priority is given to investing in forestry crops for economicafforestation and the development of forest environment services.
- Irrigation:Concentrating capital on completed projects (only newly commencing dykes and dyke-maintenance projects, some urgent projects on reservoir safety); priority is given to investing in the irrigational system for aquaculture;developingthe application ofsavingirrigation technique;more capital is prioritized to the upgrading,maintenance of works after investment rather than new investment;paying attention to investing in systemworks rather than headworks.
2.Adjustment of form/investment capital source:Implementing the review, classification of investment projects,adjustingcapital sourcesand investment forms to attract social resources to the agricultural industry and rural areas in a maximum way:
- Selecting projects with the ability of capital recovery to socialize investment capital sources, increase the density of creditinvestmentcapital,individual, collectivecapitals,foreigndirect investment capital,including thePublic-Private Partnershipform(PPP)in investingin the agricultural field and rural areas.
-Gradually decreasing the density of investment capital from theState budget in the total investment capital of the industry.
- Decentralizing investment management on localities, mobilizing local resources to small-sized works, projectsin the local scale,the Ministry only invests in large-sized projects,works in the local, regional scale orwith complicated technique;strengthening supervision work, tightening investment management.
3. Solutions to mechanism, policy
- Land:Reviewing the land fund to deliver to farmersor enterprises to hire to cultivate industrial crops, afforest;implementingsynchronous policies to protect rice land funds.
- Science and technology:Assisting to populize and guide the application of good agriculturalpractices(GAP),high technology;assisting production with confirmation.
- Credit policy:Requesting to increase the limit and extendthe credit lending periodappropriate to the production cycleof each plant, animal object.
-Trade policy:Applying export tariff to some types of crude agricultural, forest and aquatic products(wood chip, rubber latex,…)in oder to restrict the export of crude products and encourage the investment in domestic processing industry.
Assisting the activity oftrade promotion, researching and extending markets,activities of improvingthe commodity value in the commercial field(surveying market,establishing trade centres at key markets…)./.
Ministry of Planning and Investment